Dealing with scarce data to understand how environmental gradients and propagule pressure shape fine‐scale alien distribution patterns on coastal dunes

Questions: On sandy coastal habitats, factors related to substrate and to wind action vary along the sea–inland ecotone, forming a marked directional disturbance and stress gradient. Further, input of propagules of alien plant species associated to touristic exploitation and development is intense. This has contributed to establishment and spread of aliens in coastal systems. Records of alien species in databases of such heterogeneous landscapes remain scarce, posing a challenge for statistical modelling. We address this issue and attempt to shed light on the role of environmental stress/disturbance gradients and propagule pressure on invasibility of plant communities in these typical model systems. Location: Sandy coasts of Lazio (Central Italy). Methods: We proposed an innovative methodology to deal with low prevalence of alien occurrence in a data set and high cost of field‐based sampling by taking advantage, through predictive modelling, of the strong interrelation between vegetation and abiotic features in coastal dunes. We fitted generalized additive models to analyse (1) overall patterns of alien occurrence and spread and (2) specific patterns of the most common alien species recorded. Conclusion: Even in the presence of strong propagule pressure, variation in local abiotic conditions can explain differences in invasibility within a local environment, and intermediate levels of natural disturbance and stress offer the best conditions for spread of alien species. However, in our model system, propagule pressure is actually the main determinant of alien species occurrence and spread. We demonstrated that extending the information of environmental features measured in a subsample of vegetation plots through predictive modelling allows complex questions in invasion biology to be addressed without requiring disproportionate funding and sampling effort.     

Oceanographic anomalies and sea‐level rise drive mangroves inland in the Pacific coast of Mexico

Question: Although mangrove forests are generally regarded as highly threatened, some studies have shown that mangrove canopies in the Pacific coast of Mexico have been increasing in recent decades. We investigated the possible causes driving this reported mangrove expansion. Location: The mangrove lagoons of Magdalena Bay in Baja California, Mexico. Methods: We used 50‐year‐old aerial photographs and 24‐year‐old satellite images to compare long‐term vegetation change, surveyed a coastal vegetation transect to analyse flooding levels, compiled six decades of tidal and oceanographic information, as well as hurricane data to analyse changes in storm frequency or sea‐level conditions, and used isotopic analysis to date the age of trees along the gradient. Results: A significant increase in mangrove cover has occurred in backwaters of the lagoons during the last 40 years, and especially during the El Niño anomalies of the 1980s and 1990s, while at the same time the mangrove fringe has been receding. Conclusions: The observed change can be attributed to the combined action of the warm surface waters of El Niño events and sea‐level rise. Jointly, these two effects are sufficient to flood large areas of previously non‐flooded salt flats, dispersing mangrove seedlings inland. The inland expansion of mangroves, however, does not ease conservation concerns, as it is the seaward fringes, and not the inland margins, that provide the most valuable environmental services for fisheries and coastal protection.     

Ecological Risk Assessment of Tebuthiuron Following Application on Tropical Australian Wetlands

The present study assessed the ecological risks of the herbicide tebuthiuron to freshwater fauna and flora of northern Australia's tropical wetlands. Effects characterization utilized acute and chronic toxicity data of tebuthiuron to local freshwater species (three animals and two plants) as well as toxicity data derived from northern hemisphere species. Species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) for four effects scenarios—plant chronic toxicity (NOEC data), plant chronic toxicity (EC/IC₅₀ data), invertebrate and vertebrate chronic toxicity (NOEC data), and vertebrate acute toxicity (LC₅₀ data)—were used to characterize effects and calculate 10, 5, and 1% hazardous concentrations (HCs). Tebuthiuron concentrations affecting 5% of species (i.e., HC₅s) for the earlier scenarios were 0.013, 0.093, 9.0, and 97 mg L^?1, respectively. Exposure characterization involved the use of historical field monitoring data of tebuthiuron concentrations following application of tebuthiuron to a large infestation of the wetland weed Mimosa pigra (Mimosa). Tebuthiuron concentrations in surface water ranged from below detection to 2.05 mg L^?1 and were still measurable up to 10 months following application. A breakpoint regression model was fitted to the field monitoring data, providing a time-dependent estimate of exposure to tebuthiuron. Risk characterization involved the comparison of the SSDs and associated HCs for each of the effects scenarios, with the time-dependent model of tebuthiuron exposure. Modeled tebuthiuron concentrations over the first 12 days post-application were in excess of concentrations required to cause major (i.e., 50% reductions in population numbers) effects to over 85% of freshwater plant species (based on data for phytoplankton and floating macrophytes). Beyond this period and up to 300 d post-application, 10–20% of species were still predicted to be affected. To quantify the probability of prolonged effects, the plant SSDs were compared to a cumulative probability distribution of tebuthiuron measured from 70 d to 293 d post-application. The probability of at least 5% of freshwater plant species experiencing chronic effects due to tebuthiruon at ≥70 d post-application was 58% based on NOEC data and 8% based on EC/IC₅₀ data. Overlap of the 95% confidence limits of the exposure distribution and plant SSDs indicated substantial uncertainty in the risk estimates. Risks of effects to freshwater invertebrates and vertebrates were generally < 1%. It was concluded that tebuthiuron appears to represent a significant and prolonged risk to native freshwater plant species, particularly phytoplankton and floating macrophytes, whereas the risks to freshwater invertebrates and vertebrates appear low. However, from a management perspective, the risks of tebuthiuron (and other herbicides) must be weighed against the known, serious environmental and economic impacts of the target weed, Mimosa. Overall, the outcomes of the risk assessment support the various management options that have been implemented with regard to the use of tebuthiuron to control Mimosa.     

辽河三角洲湿地以丹顶鹤生境保护为核心的退耕预案研究

在遥感 (RS)和地理信息系统 (GIS)的支持下 ,结合野外实地调查 ,运用预案研究方法和景观生态决策与评价支持系统(L EDESS)的决策与规划评价思想 ,针对辽河三角洲大洼小三角洲部分的过度农业开发对野生动物生境的严重影响后果 ,对本区土地利用规划进行了以丹顶鹤生境保护为核心的退耕预案设计 ,并对其生态后果进行了空间模拟和评价。根据不同的经济和生态发展要求设计了 4个预案 ,分别为 1988年原状 (预案 1)、1998年原状 (预案 2 )、苇带设计 (预案 3)和生境恢复 (预案 4 ) ,通过对各预案进行生境适宜性、生态承载力及经济效益评价 ,可以得到以下结论 :预案 1尽管生态效益很高 ,但经济效益很低 ,在区域发展需求下由现状年恢复到预案 1具有不现实性 ;而预案 2为强烈经济需求下的典型发展模式 ,生态效益偏低 ,与经济效益的比例失调 ;预案 3和预案 4为生态与经济的协调发展模式及丹顶鹤生境恢复提供了有效参考 ,可将其视为近期和远期规划目标分步实施。这说明合理的土地开发利用方式和生境恢复措施不仅可以获得经济的高效发展 ,而且还可为稳定的生态环境提供有力保障 ,从而为区域经济与环境的协调发展提供参考性依据 ,具有一定的典型性     

Susceptibility of A Patagonian Mallín Flooded Meadow to Invasion by Exotic Species

Mallín wetland meadows are highly diverse, rare habitats in western Patagonia that are believed to be particularly susceptible to disturbance. I tested the hypothesis that exotic species reduce the rate and extent of recolonization by native species after disturbances. Open patches (50 × 50 cm) were subjected to artificial seeding with propagules of two exotic species. Cover of individual species in each plot was measured over the four following austral summers (1990–1993) and two late summers (1995 and 1998). The effect of a particular exotic species was not the same for all native species. For some native species, the presence of an exotic species in the plots was associated with a significant increase in cover, while a significant decrease in cover was observed for other species. Native species richness and diversity were not significantly affected by the introduction and establishment of exotic species. In addition, the failure of the exotic species to establish in the undisturbed control plots further suggests that the undisturbed mallín is resistant to invasion by exotic species. The results suggest that the small-scale changes that occurred in this community due to exotic species during recolonization were transient and almost undetectable after eight years.     

River forcing at work: ecological modeling of prograding and regressive deltas

Two explicit landscape simulation models were used to investigate habitat shifts in coastal Louisiana due to varying river forcing and sea level rise scenarios. Wetland conversion to open water and yearly shifts of marsh habitats in two contrasting estuarine regions were examined; the Atchafalaya delta which is a prograding delta area with strong riverine input, and the Barataria Basin is a regressive delta with high wetland loss which is isolated from riverine input. The models linked several modules dynamically across spatial and temporal scales. Both models consisted of a vertically integrated hydrodynamic model coupled with process-based biological modules of above and below ground primary productivity and soil dynamics. The models explored future effects of possible sea level rise and river diversion plans for 30 and 70-year projections starting in 1988. Results showed that increased river forcing had large land preservation impacts, and indicated that healthy functioning of the Mississippi Delta depends largely on inputs of freshwater, nutrients, and sediments in river water. These types of models are useful for research and as management tools for predicting the effects of regional impacts on structural landscape level changes.     

Salt marshes: biological controls of food webs in a diminishing environment

This essay reviews two important topics in coastal ecology: the work on the relative role of bottom–up and top–down controls in natural communities and the loss of wetlands worldwide. In salt marshes and other coastal wetlands, bottom–up and top–down mechanisms of control on natural communities are pervasive. Bottom–up effects through nutrient supply may propagate to upper trophic levels via better food quality, or indirectly by altering water and sediment quality. Top–down control by consumers alters lower trophic levels through consumption of primary producers, and indirectly by trophic cascades in which higher predators feed on grazers. The combined forcing of bottom–up and top–down controls govern assemblages of species in natural communities, mediated by physical and biogeochemical factors. Although there is much information about biological controls of coastal food webs, more information is needed. Even more important is that large losses of wetland are occurring along coastlines worldwide due to a variety of economic and social activities including filling, wetland reclamation, and sediment interception. Such losses are of concern because these wetlands provide important functions, including export of energy-rich material to deeper waters, nursery and stock habitats, shoreline stabilization, and intercept land-derived nutrients and contaminants. These important functions justify conservation and restoration efforts; barring such efforts, we will find it increasingly difficult to find coastal wetlands where we can continue to gain further understanding of ecology and biogeochemistry and lack the aesthetic pleasure these wetlands provide to so many of us.     

Spatial and temporal analyses of water quality and phytoplankton biomass in an urbanized versus a relatively pristine salt marsh estuary

The robust growth of coastal communities in the southeastern United States is putting unique pressures on estuarine resources. Urbanization of estuarine systems may alter ecosystem function and thus affect the spatial scale and magnitude of nutrient concentrations and primary production temporally and spatially. We examined the spatial and temporal patterns of nutrient and chlorophyll a (Chl a) concentrations in two shallow well-mixed estuaries, (1) a developed estuary, Murrells Inlet (MI), South Carolina, and (2) a relatively pristine estuary, North Inlet (NI), South Carolina. The summer chlorophyll a maximum in MI was characteristically higher than in NI, which may be indicative of eutrophication. Correlations between salinity and inorganic nutrients (N and P) suggest that nutrient import from upland sources may be more pronounced in MI during stochastic precipitation events. Although inorganic nutrient concentrations between the estuaries were similar overall, during a wet period, inorganic N concentration in MI was increased to a greater extent than in NI, while only minimal increases in inorganic P were observed in both estuaries. Chlorophyll a concentrations decreased from the dry to wet period. Geographic Information System (GIS) plots of intensive spatial sampling in MI indicated spatial gradients of nutrient concentrations within this estuary that appeared to be consistent over time. These observations were investigated in more detail using regression analyses to examine the influences of coastal dilution and nutrient sources on relationships between water quality constituents. Results indicate the importance of stochastic rain events in affecting the linkages of estuarine processes to upland runoff in the urbanized estuary, MI.     

Potential impacts of brown tide, Aureococcus anophagefferens, on juvenile hard clams, Mercenaria mercenaria, in the Coastal Bays of Maryland, USA

The rate of growth of juvenile hard clams, Mercenaria mercenaria, was studied in the Coastal Bays of Maryland during an outbreak of the brown tide, Aureococcus anophagefferens. Brown tide dominated the plankton community during the month of June 2002, with cell densities at several sites reaching category 3 (>200,000 cells ml⁻¹) levels. Temperatures during the bloom were 18.6–27.5 °C. Nutrient conditions preceding and during the bloom were conducive for the proliferation of A. anophagefferens: while inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus were <1 μg at N or P l⁻¹, urea was elevated during bloom development. Organic nitrogen, phosphorus and carbon were in the range of levels observed in previous brown tide blooms and increased following the collapse of the bloom. Growth rates of juvenile clams were significantly lower during the period of the brown tide bloom than following its collapse. Growth rates of M. mercenaria were found to be negatively impacted at brown tide densities as low as 20,000 cells ml⁻¹, or category 1 levels. The low growth rates of M. mercenaria could not be explained by temperature, as the lowest growth rates were found when water temperatures were at levels previously found to be optimal for growth.     

基于PSR模型的凌河口湿地生态系统健康评价与预警研究

凌河口湿地自然保护区是辽河流域主要的湿地保护区域。选取1995年、2000年、2005年、2009年和2014年TM影像作为研究的数据源,在3S技术平台支撑下构建了凌河口湿地空间信息数据库,获取了5个时期的景观格局指数。运用PSR数学模型,从压力、状态、响应3个方面选取10个评价指数,构建了凌河口湿地生态系统健康评价指标体系;采用AHP方法确定各项指标权重指数,应用逻辑斯蒂增长模型(Logistic growth model)对各个单项指标进行单因子评价,最后用计算CEI的综合评价法对5个时期湿地的生态健康情况进行综合评价。结果表明:1995年、2000年生态系统健康指数为0.642、0.617,凌河口湿地生态系统状态为比较健康;2005年、2009年和2014年生态健康指数为0.524、0.436和0.405,凌河口湿地生态系统处于亚健康的状态,应及时采取措施对该研究区进行生态系统保护。最后通过选取基于灰色系统理论的预测模型,构建凌河口湿地生态健康预测模型GM(1,1),对模型进行精度检验,发现灰色绝对关联度、后验差比值和小误差概率的精度检验等级均为一级,预测模型精度较为理想,因此采用GM(1,1)模型对凌河口湿地进行生态系统健康预测研究。预测结果表明:未来20年的湿地生态健康值分别为:0.357、0.321、0.291、0.267,研究区处于一般病态,并有向病态发展的趋势,生态健康面临愈来愈严重的威胁,对湿地进行保护和管理刻不容缓。